2 Weeks down, so what is next?

• We are up to 15 cases of COVID-19 in Windsor Essex
• I am on Season 10 of the Simpsons or about 1/3 the way through the show.
• Next week will have some big decisions coming from government:
  • As per Mayor Dilken’s video – non essential municipal staff were sent home until April 5th. They are currently being paid but Council will have to decide this week if the non-essential staff stay home and whether or not they continue to get paid.
  • School were supposed to reopen April 6th but the Premier has already said that won’t happen. So the question will be if and when they might potentially be open. To this point in time (to my understanding) Teachers and other staff are being paid, if the school year ends or the shutdown is extended through at least April, will that continue?

• The curve will likely bounce above the average in the coming days but without substantial community based transmission it should fall back under by Day 15-16
• I had a friend of a friend cancel their May wedding this week, another friend whose wedding I am standing up in cancelled his bachelor party plans.

• There is a gap in releasing data, either not all points are being reported by the media, or the health unit isn’t releasing all (what I would consider) pertinent data on cases. The time IMO from symptomatic to testing to confirmation is some of the most important time for rapid tracing and community tracking. Although I don’t doubt that that WECHU is tracking these elements making them public will be important.
• It is amazing the levels of duplication that can be found on Social Media. Going out and just trying to do good isn’t always the best thing to do. In a time of crisis centralization is important.
• By my estimate, approximately 36,000 people were laid off in Windsor-Essex the week of March 16th (not including teachers or gov’t staff who are still getting paid). Over 900,000 people applied for EI that same week across the county.
• The clock on when government supports become available is ticking and the question is how do you bridge people until mid-April at best, start of May at worst.
  • EI – although waiting periods have been eliminated due to the backlog created by the surge of applicants it will likely take more than the 2 week average for people to move from application to payment
  • New Emergency Benefits – $2000 per month which is taxable – applications start April 9 with payment approximately 10 days later (from my understanding). This is being run through CRA bypassing the Service Canada backlog.
  • GST and CCB beginning of May based on your 2018 tax filing
    • For me someone who separated in 2019 this could actually be pretty concerning as our combined GST rebate was marginal but separated my Ex and I could be entitled to a larger support that wouldn’t be captured on my 2018 tax filing.
• Honestly I have started to think about what is next? Locally this wave will peak in the next month or two, then start burning off as physical distancing does its thing to stem the tide of community infection. The question becomes, what happens when “normal returns”. All it takes is a student at school who is asymptomatic 3 or 4 days after visiting cousins etc. and you have a hot zone and a second wave.
• Izzy is still super cute