The calm before the storm!

• In November 2012, I wrote a blog post for a now defunct blog called the Riskshift that stated that the re-election of President Obama proved to be the End of American Exceptionalism. I said this not because I hoped Obama would lose, but the reactions showed the schism within the fabric of US society that have now festered for the subsequent 8 year. I re-posted that post on this website in mid-2013 with an update which you can read it here.
  • This isn’t to say that the issues that are visible and enabled today didn’t exist in 2012 or long before. Regardless of how the election turns out, it will remain broken.
  • Whether or not you can find Belarus on a map, what is happening there could easily play out after November 2 in the US. A disputed election, a federal judicial apparatus ready to be mobilized against it’s people. Kind of like what is happening with Portland.
  • The Trump Regime (it should be called that) is little different that “third world” dictators that try to steal elections. Whether it is the sabotage/removal of mail sorting machine to disrupt voting and the straight up admission that it is happening to suppress voting by mail.

Marge Simpson has something to say. pic.twitter.com/viux96bAPf

— TheSimpsons (@TheSimpsons) August 14, 2020

• The above is funny, but also part of the problem. What we are watching in the US isn’t normal behaviour in a democracy. Turning veiled racist attack and equating a vice-president candidate to a cartoon character, then having said character respond on social media normalizes the behavior.
  • The 3.5% rule of popular mobilization states that if that percentage or more of a country’s population actively protest in a sustained manner, regimes tend to fall.
  • In the US context, that means 11.87 million people need to take the the streets in a sustained manner.
• The denial of the Tecumseh Sportplex plan is certainly interesting.
  • What is also interested is that it didn’t make it to federal review, which means it was blocked by Provincial officials.
  • Although the program was oversubscribed, politically what it means is that MP Kusmierczyk likely didn’t have a chance to significantly lobby for the project.
  • This made me think about some comments by Mayor Dilkens this past week on Doug Ford related to the hospital:

“The premier wasn’t saying if you don’t elect a Conservative MPP you’ll never get the hospital, that wasn’t what he was saying,” the mayor said. “What he was saying is having a voice at the table will make sure a project gets the traction and voice it needs amongst all the other priorities that other MPPs are bringing to the table.”

Dilkens recounted how when Windsor had two high-powered Liberal provincial cabinet ministers in Dwight Duncan and Sandra Pupatello, they helped dissuade the government from forcing a 12-lane highway through Windsor to connect to a new bridge. Instead the Liberals agreed to what eventually became the much-preferred and very expensive Herb Gray Parkway.

“I understand what he’s saying,” Dilkens said of the premier’s comments.

Windsor Star Aug 13 2020

• Then there was this story from a few months back.
  • Given Ford’s prioritization of Hwy 3, it is likely this will be the project gets fast tracked as it is one that has the Premiers’s attention, would help supporters and potentially aid in the unseating of a thorn in his side.
  • The politics of capital expenditures is certainly an interesting conversation to say the least.

• Note the bending down of the poly curve. Good News!
• Because it’s 2020, I give you a fire tornado.

Tornado created by the #LoyaltonFire captured by @v3katelynn as we traveled south on 395. @NWSReno @KTNV #fire #wildfire #tornado pic.twitter.com/zUPVY6Bd6s

— Jordan (@nevada_traveler) August 16, 2020

• How quickly can COVID get out of hand? Here is rough sketch of my weekend:
  • This fall a good friend of mine is getting married and I am in his wedding party. His bachelor party has been postponed due to COVID but with the Province in Stage 3, it was agreed that a number of the groomsmen would meet in Burlington/Hamilton to get measured for suits, then a patio would be responsibly enjoyed as a small group. For most of us this would be one of the first times seeing people outside their bubble.
    • If you are wondering about my bubble. In person, since March I have only been in close presence of 28 unique individuals. Yes a bit larger than my bubble of 10, only 9 have been seen indoors. Many of these unique meeting have only occurred once, and were followed by not seeing that person (or anyone) for an extended period. I have taken a COVID test and tested negative at that point in time and have the COVID app on my phone
      • Does it really shock anyone that I am in a position to do my own contact tracing???
  • This weekend was also the weekend of the Bachelorette party where bride’s side of the wedding party traveled to a cottage in Muskoka for a stay-cation weekend starting Friday night. They had booked this cottage over a year ago.
  • Saturday morning, one of the ladies at the bachelorette, got a text from their aesthetician…. The aesthetician was COVID +
    • She has visited this aesthetician earlier that week both had wore masks and other PPE.
    • That put the 10 girls at the bachelorette at risk as a carpool had occurred up to the cottage from Toronto with what I would assume a stop or two at a grocery store, LCBO etc.
  • The potentially exposed bridesmaid partner is a groomsman in the wedding party. He was supposed to meet in Burlington/Hamilton and he was also going to carpool with the groom from Toronto. Obviously that couldn’t happen, and since the groom didn’t have a vehicle (carpooling), he could no longer get to the fitting. The potentially infected groomsman went and got tested and self-isolated.
    • One of the groomsmen has a 2 week old baby just at home and a new house in Burlington so his backyard would have been a short term gathering point after the fitting but now this new risk made that option questionable if the at risk individuals came.
    • As for me, I was stuck in traffic on the 401 when my phone started ringing, the situation being explained. As I was running late, already over halfway there and needing to buy a suit at some point for this wedding, I said I would press on.
  • Myself and one other groomsman got fitted, chatted for an hour or so. Before I moved on to the Grooms place in Toronto to see him (since I drove up I might as well) drive the rest of the way.
• Due to the COVID+ aesthetician by our count 12 were at risk just in the direct circle of contact of this bridal party of potential exposure. This doesn’t count people in stores or Obviously a positive test dramatically changes how this weekend will be viewed and remembered going forward.
  • Had the text arrive 3 hours later, that number would have jumped to 20+, a baby may have been exposed plus you know… me!
• At time of writing, the Groomsman has tested negative and results are pending for his partner who has now gone for 2 tests (1 in Muskoka on Saturday and 1 in Toronto on Sunday). No one has shown any symptoms.
• Certainly an interesting weekend.
  • In case you are wondering, Izzy stayed at my Aunt’s house and handled her first weekend away from me just fine. She has reclaimed her spot!