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(As I was finalizing this word broke that the PM was stepping down. I did a few quick edits but TBH it doesn’t change a lot IMO)

As I do most years this this blog post outlines things that I’m keeping an eye on as we enter a new year you can see my post for 2024 to see if I was close or not.

Two elections before summer

I put the odds that there’s going to be up both provincial and federal election before this coming summer. The federal election must occur before the end of the fall as the fix election date of October 20, 2025 creeps ever closer. Provincially, June 2026 is the deadline for an election but rumous of an early call by the Ford Government are out there.

Federally I think we can all see the writing on the wall with the liberal government and it’s just a question of when not if they lose the next election. With disastrous polling numbers nationally likely trickling down to the local level it’s hard to see how MP Kusmierczyk hold onto a seat that he won by only a few hundred votes in both of his last elections. NOTE: as the PM’s resignation news broke, the request to prorogue Parliament until March 24 puts an election in early May IMO.

With a blue tidal wave coming the nomination race for Windsor-Tecumseh becomes a key battle. You could see municipal councillors from either the Town of Tecumseh or the City of Windsor being nominated thus needing a by-election in their respective municipal wards should they win. The timing of the federal election would then drive if a municipal by-election is possible as municipal elections are scheduled for October 2026.

Update: Given the news of the PM stepping down, it may put a wrench in the the election plans but with the legislature scheduled to return March 3. Trump Tariffs could starts as early as Jan 20, you recall the legislature and table an emergency budget with corporate tax breaks and income supports and call an election for March while the liberals are picking a leader and parliament is prorogued.

Provincially, it seems clear that the Conservatives want to hold an election before Trudeau government falls. Whether or not it happens remains to be seen but I feel like a Spring provincial election is in the cards. Locally, I feel that the incumbents, should an election occur are likely to do well unless there is a major shift.

It’s the Economy Stupid

Who knows what will happen in this space: Tariffs from Trump will likely hit hard in Windsor-Essex; The battery plant should be up and running full steam – yet to date we have maintained high unemployment rates despite good economic trends which points to underlying structural issues; we are projected  GDP is expected to be “robust” but that hides growing inequality within and across the region.

The first 3 months of the year will probably set the tone. If there isn’t a quick fix to the tariffs or if the auto sector blows up – it will be time to buckle up. Luckily for everyone a $200 cheque is in the mail from the provincial government.

The New Urban National Park?

The Urban National Park is supposed to be open in 2025 from my understanding. Whether the death spiral of the current government impacts this I don’t know but am certainly watching. It isn’t clear to me but if the government prorogue parliament or falls it is likely that the bill C-248 will be lost. So where this process, the Parks Canada work and the broader National Urban Park research and advocacy is, isn’t entirely clear.

What will be the official boundaries, which properties are in or out, will the overpass happen, what are the implications for Machett Road, will there be expropriation, what are the costs to the Windsor property taxpayers? I raise the question again of – who is holding the pen and will the results be shared – and do they meet the expectations of residents, community groups and advocates? Time will tell.

Budget Season

Obviously, the municipal budget will be interesting to watch as this is the last – pre-municipal election budget. So if there is a year for constraint it is this year.

The committees have done their work and in early Feb we will see the results of their cutting bringing the potential levee increase down from over 12% down to what the Mayor presented at under 3%. A heroic task! I suspect the Core and East Windsor will be the focus as infrastructure for Sandwich South, the Battery Plant and Strengthening the Core will be narratives that continue into 2025. What that leaves for the rest of the City is an open question.

I am currently reading the budget documents to see the devils in the details. Delegation day is Jan 13^th – less than a week from now! Check back next week for more!

Development Charges

As I mentioned, I sit on the City of Windsor’s Development Charge Taskforce and changes are a coming (more will likely be written about this). This year’s budget as pointed out by AM800, the City is anticipating $5 million in new development revenue. I suspect it will largely be from the new development charge rates that will be coming into effect before the end of the fiscal year.

Across the County, development charges are about to be assessed. For the first time County wide charges are being explored and with the new official plan completed each municipality will in turn review and raise their charges.

The critical questions will be how much these charges will go up and what will the impact be on housing. As the charges are passed on the eventual home purchaser driving up prices of new homes. As new home prices go up, comparable markets prices also rise, so if a 3 bed, 3 bath new build goes up by $70K and an existing and well-maintained home of similar spec, may fetch $40-50K more overnight!

EOI Results

2024 saw the City of Windsor put up several properties for Expression of Interests for Housing Development on Municipal Properties. What I am watching for is how far do these projects move this year. We will see shovels in the ground this year on some of these properties. What are the terms? How many affordable units? How many market units? What incentives were provided? Are non-profits involved or just for-profit developers?

It is likely we will see other properties go up for EOI – this image was floating around just before New Years.

This is the former St Michaels school in the West end. If legitimate it likely hints that the city has plans for a West End EOI in 2025.

Housing

So, what is next in housing? Well, the EOIs and Development Charges will certainly come into play. Windsor has succeeded to hit it’s housing targets for 2024 after not reaching the target in 2023. The writing is probably on the wall for 2025 given the development pipeline, it will be factors like development charges, interest rates and approvals the determines if 2025 is success. The question of whether we start seeing the targets become more ambitious as they were planned to be?

Tecumseh seems to be skirting HAF requirements that Windsor also snubbed but also keep the money. Given the place of this federal government is, it is likely they won’t be forced to give the money back. They also have a housing committee which is advising them, interesting to see where they land. So watching this process will be important.

I sit on Essex Housing Affordability Taskforce. Essex has released its own expression of interest for the Harrow High School – my question is, will any affordable units actually come form this project? I doubt you will see shovels in the ground on this project this year, but certainly the proponent and scope maybe released before the end of the year. My concern is that units will be designated for this development but without transit or other services in the Harrow community, it may just trap individuals there.

Overall, despite declines in rents (setting aside Windsor having lower incomes) the housing market is going to remain tight. If interest rates keep going down, the risks of bidding wars and investment purchases rise in our local market. I have a surprise for you, the housing crisis isn’t going away.

Bridges

Obviously, the official opening of the bridge will be a huge deal with ribbons being cut, politicians smiling, leg pumping bike rides and selfie being taken. The real impact will be on the ground – the opening of the bridge ends the community benefit programs in West Windsor and Delray Detroit. Whether some equivalent program may emerge during operation is possible, but it was not a required element of the project.

Then of course there is the impact of the open bridge: How many trucks will come off Huron Church Road? Will throngs of cycle tourists swarm across the border in both directions? What is the toll for the Gordie Howe Bridge and how does it compare to the other crossings?

As for the other bridge, this fall at the Ward 2 Ward Meeting Mayor Dilkens talked about how a deal with the Ambassador Bridge was closer than ever and he was never more confident (paraphrasing from memory). The deal would solve for the blighted properties and enable the eventual development of a new custom plaza. With piles of steal sitting next to the bridge, what I am watching for is whether the deal is done and what are the details. Is there another community benefit fund or is it just a suitcase of cash to the city? Who gets to build on the blighted properties? Where does the fire station go?

Educational Strife

Signs point to both St Clair College and the University of Windsor with major budget cuts in contract year potentially having major labour disruption in 2025. The college strike is a province wide negotiation, with a potential start date of January 4^th. As for the University of Windsor given its budget position and the fact that many of the unions are in contract negotiations, it will be interesting to see if agreements are reached before strike actions occurs. I am guess no….

Outside of the PSE space, the Public Board seems to be on track for ongoing challenges around its budget and announcement for a new downtown trustee is likely coming early in 2025! It will be interesting to see the impact of the loss of the IB program and if you see flight from the public board students to the catholic board of affluent parents of IB students who are mobile.

Poverty Reduction?

The City of Windsor on before of the region via Pathway to Potential RFP’ed the regional poverty reduction strategy fall 2024. To be honest it isn’t a poverty reduction strategy any more rather a neighbourhood strategy. So given the geographies covered it will be interesting to see who are the selected agencies and the scope of the work that they will be undertaking.

The first year of the plan requires a comprehensive community plan for the target neighbourhoods to be developed so I will be watching that process and seeing what comes of it.