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A year without a local election – but feeling like an election.

So, I don’t think there will be an election in 2024, but it will feel like there will be. Federal election is due Fall of 2025 while June 2026 would be the next scheduled provincial race. Yet the era of hyper partisanship and the impacts are here to stay.

The polls federally have largely been static with a large Conservative lead. A large portion of the population has decided it is time to move on from the Trudeau government but given this context there is little incentive for any party but the Conservatives to bring down the government. As a result, a struggling Liberal Party will likely be on the attack.

No opportunity will be missed to strike out at the Conservatives and unfortunately this political climate is a poor space to deliver significant public policy changes that are so desperately needed. There will be no consensus building, or opportunities a broad agreement -everything will be zero sum and that is bad. An underwhelming fiscal update this fall, will likely lead into a budget that will likely try and strike a balance between fiscal constraint and needing to spend on massive ticket items like housing. We have seen the first plays from the playbook with some of the more forceful dust ups between local MPs; MPPs and local officials on the battery plant, housing and more. Whether this changes their fortunes remain to be seen. Frankly, in my opinion the best hope for the Liberals may be a Donald Trump win in November (more that later), as the chaos that could breed, may scare former supporters back to the fold.

At a Provincial level, with a new leader for the Liberals (and a mayoral election in Mississauga) and 2023 was year that really didn’t have any big wins IMO for the governing PCs broadly so 2024 is probably going to feature a reset. Locally things are a bit better with Highway 3 progressing, the battery plant sorted and additional investments being supporting, and an EA for the Lauzon Parkway 401 connection that will become the big carrot in the 2026 election. Although the PCs continue to lead in the polls, ongoing scandals continue to dog them. Chippy exchanges between local MPPs are likely to be common as both parties have incentives to keep the focus on them rather than a new Liberal leader.

I am struggling to think about what the priority for the provincial government in this year’s budget will be. Health care, Education, Post-secondary, Housing, more changes to municipal governance? The Ford government has struggled to put forward big ideas that it didn’t later walk back, so I am curious if there will be something big in the budget or if they go the opposite direction and try and tinker around the edges and micro target some funding.

Rates of Interest

Approximately 2.4 million mortgages will be renewed in 2024, representing 42% of all mortgages, according to CMHC. With many people’s interest rates going from a ~2% rate to ~6% it is going to carry significant costs for a lot of people and likely impact many local homeowners and the economy as household purchasing power is constrained. The US Federal reserve is predicted to cut rates in 2024, there will be pressure (particularly political) on the Bank of Canada to follow suit, but the question is will it be enough and what will the impacts be on consumer spending and incomes.

This is probably where there is a recession risk in the economy. As refinancing goes forward, spending contracts, which will impact service sectors the most. Some of this pressure could be offset by quick cuts to interest rates next year, but it will all be about timing. More broadly, Canadians are holding large amounts of consumer debt with $21,000 of average non-mortgage debt. Is it a debt bomb? Probably not, but it is an exposure that we have to consider when thinking about 2024 and the local economy.

Hitting Targets?

Will Windsor/Essex County meet its housing targets…. Short answer, no. Just read my blog each month.

Will we do better than 2023, I think we will. Some downward pressure on interest rates could get a few marginal projects moving, whether those projects bring density or new suburban style development to the county is the question. There are some projects that are underway that will come online next year that will push numbers forward but this years’ lag in starts will mean a lag in completions.

Frankly there isn’t much that can be done about it, I suspect the City Budget or Provincial/Federal investment may spur a few more affordable housing projects may also pop up but I don’t feel like there is a significant shift incoming. Even the larger developments that were “contentious” debated this year, probably won’t be online in 2024. As for the Housing Accelerator Funds, despite the efforts of Councillor Kieran MacKenzie to bring it back for reconsideration (we should reconsider) it probably isn’t going to have any impact on our local market in 2024.

Renovictions haven’t been a thing in Windsor, at least not at a level that we have scene in other major centres. This was partially due to rental market was targeting the bottom end of students and lower income individuals but rising rents, high demand, tight supply could see it become a thing in 2024. With a 1% vacancy rate and housing starts not hitting targets and hundreds of workers coming into the community we could see that trend change.

Also an interesting piece of data mapped that I received mapped from Josef Filipowicz and Steve Lafleur co-authors of Tall and Sprawl for Ontario 360. I hope to have more from them in the new year…

Battery Brouhaha

After the foreign worker drama, the battery plant is still moving forward and seems to be on pace.  I stand by my position that a Community Benefit Agreement was completely appropriate and should have been imposed on an investment like this. Even if there are proprietary elements to a project like this, one of this scope and scale should strive to be overly transparent and not become a political football.

I completely accepted that foreign workers would be coming into the community to stand up the new plant, the question that I continue to hold is where are they going to live. Does Nextstar want it’s longer term workers living in hotel rooms for months on end? Will we see corporate purchasing of buildings or units?

Yet news that automakers are lowering their EV production as general demand is lower than expected; while government is putting in place EV vehicle standards hope to shore up the supply side; then there is the nuts and bolts of charging infrastructure – I can’t actually charge an EV at my house. So the magic question really is – are Canadians ready to shift on mass? 2024 is going to bring more announcements, construction progress, and flag waving but likely not a lot of tangible impact for the average person in Essex County.

Change in the Ivory Tower

2023 saw several significant changes in the leadership of our local PSE. A new President was announced for the college but you also saw two longtime leaders at St Clair College move on – Waseem Habash – VP of Academic and Peter Wowow – Director of Research and Innovation. Meanwhile at the University of Windsor, 2023 saw the arrival of a new Provost, new Vice President Research and Innovation, new Vice President External, and Chief Legal Officer to a revamped Executive Team following the completion of their new Strategic Plan.  More interestingly is that all these hires at the University come from outside of the Windsor-Essex Community bring new and different perspectives.

Now for most people shifting people at the top of a major institution isn’t that big of a deal and generally I would agree but the level of change in these two institutions is significant and creates an opportunity for new and different engagement and perspectives. Time will tell if this occurs, or if institutional inertia will create roadblocks but I honestly see 2024 as an opportunity for institutional renewal and re-engagement with the region.

Full disclosure, I project managed the consultation and drafting on the University of Windsor’s Strategic Plan.

Strong Budget

By the end of January, the first “strong mayor” budget in Windsor will be tabled January 8^th, delegation day on January 22^nd with decisions day being January 29^th. What do I expect, well unlike other years, I don’t suspect a table drop or savings being found on deliberation day. This is the mayor’s budget, he will likely put forward his best and final offer to council for consideration in an effort to avoid the horse trading the often occurred in past budget processes. It isn’t clear what the role, if any the “Budget Committee” from last year will have, if anything it may just be used as an opportunity for councillors to better understand what is in front of them. This could be a point of contention but it really depends on the budget’s content and if enough priorities are being tackled.

This year it will be difficult to keep property tax increase at inflation. Many communities in Ontario are coming at 4%+. I know there will be pressure to be around the inflation level, but this is also the budget that has the most leeway from a political perspective with two more budgets between now and the election. It will be interesting to see who shows up and delegates – if anyone – as the CTS will be closed, WECHU has major cuts, the need to invest in Sandwich South infrastructure and much more is on the table. We will know more after the 8^th and check back here as I review the documents.

Expectation’s Management

One of the more profound things I have heard this year was on the Hurly Burly Podcast with three economists talking about the fall economic statement. Sean Speer’s made the point at the 24-minute mark that Canada as whole has been living in a world of Stephen Harpers Tax policy – HST cut, corporate cuts/subsidies etc. and Justin Trudeau’s social policy. This stuck with me as it seems that many people have now be seduced by this best of both worlds – lots of programs but not subsequent tax increases to pay for them.

The plethora of crisis that are facing communities like Windsor – affordability, housing, opioids and mental health, skilled labour shortages, post-secondary institution funding, international students), aging population and demographic shifts. Fundimentally we can’t solve these problems without giving up something significant or paying more taxes. Sure, there might be some middle ground with significant institutional reform but that requires a massive political capital investment and often buy-in from upper levels of government.

Expectations for residents of Windsor Essex continue to be set high by our leaders – our economy, housing market, state of our infrastructure, quality and state of services we expect etc. yet actual deliverables and visible improvement are hard to see. This is where trust is eroded in a democratic society – the disconnect from the rhetoric and the reality. So, I will be watching if our collective expectations become a problem or begin to shift as we move forward in 2024.

Parking Naturally

The Urban National Park is something that I am interested in but also an issue that I haven’t had the bandwidth for. I have watched from afar for a while but Anne Jarvis’s return in a recent op-ed really peaked my interest. With multiple bill and processes floating around in Ottawa, a summary of the initial conversation on the Urban National Park was released in October; the City of Windsor is having a consultation about the expanded Parkway Overpass; Parks Canada is doing things, as is the University of Windsor; as well as Caldwell First Nation  – what I don’t understand is who is holding the pen on this project and bringing it all together.

Expectations are high (see point above) and the ability to deliver is key. From my perspective one of the most interesting things of Anne Jarvis’ column is the apparent mobilization of the community around this issue. This is something that hasn’t happened since Greenlink which became the Herb Grey Parkway. The development of a National Park is a fraught process – property could be included or not, a road could be closed or not, who pays for X service or Y amenity, there is almost no way everyone is going to come away satisfied with whatever the park outcome is.

So I am looking for clarity on the process and the objectives, the initial consultation brought a bunch of ideas to together but 2024 will be the time where trade offs are explored and decided on. The expanded overpass is a great example – the original plan that didn’t cross the ETR trainlines was going to cost about $15M the new recommended plans are $28M. There will be a finite budget of things that can be spent for this park to launch. The City of Windsor is going to do everything in it’s power to not pay for the overpass ($1 million was set aside by the WDBA Community Benefits Program). The budget for the Rouge River National Park in Toronto was a $143 million over 10 years, I am going to assume Windsor will be less. Things like an overpass quick become budget busting if a deal isn’t struck and a process isn’t managed. The fact that a community group is organizing and demanding key outcomes is just going to drive up the pressure and potentially make this the issue to watch in 2024.

Potential Pathway?

Few places other than this blog really talk about poverty anymore, it is interesting to reflect on the fact that the City of Windsor/County of Essex Pathway to Potential Program is under review and redesign. The consultants recently went to the Community Service Standing Committee and the County of Essex Council meetings in early December. Unfortunately, the consultant’s slides aren’t available online that I could see but certainly the presentation is something.

A couple of important things, the P2P fund of about $2.1 million which hasn’t seen an increase since 2015(-ish from my recollection). The bulk of this funding goes to two programs – transit and recreation program subsidies across the region with the balance having been granted to several non-profit organizations to run various programs across the region. The amount of funds has also been constrained as whenever bus passes or swimming lessons got more expensive at budget time, the 90% discount provided by P2P, was just clawed back by other departments. So, the fact that the redesign the region’s poverty reduction strategy and is on track to come to council (City and County) in Spring 2024 with very little fanfare should be a surprise to no one.

The new strategy seems to be focusing in on a geographic approach which I think is interesting, but the program is that it isn’t actually enough money to make a difference. The program seems to be planning to continue the needed and popular transit and rec subsidies so the question that I have is whether or not a few hundred thousand dollars targeting a handful of specific geographies will be sufficient to make change and what will be the measure of success. Certainly there are synergies with ProsperUs, Community Safety and Wellbeing Plan, Public Health High Need Neighbourhoods (not sure if that is the formal name) where stacking of resources could drive impact, but without additional funding to Pathway to Potential I fear that this strategy will continue to be hampered in it’s impact.

My suggestion would be that the region should be a catalytic funder in their targeted geographies. Just funding an agency to do something isn’t impactful. At the same time, by identifying these geographies, other municipal projects should be prioritized – if you are going to target seniors in an area based on their identified need– then also give them good sidewalks and park improvements for seniors to be active at, prioritize transit realignment to better service this area, and maybe augment library hours and programs too.

The City of Toronto launched a community benefits unit based on their municipal framework, who job it is coordinate other teams and measure the impact of infrastructure projects on priority neighbourhoods. By cutting across their various department silos, they are unlocking additional value and there is no reason why staff from P2P could coordinate this while their dollars would then be leverageable by non-profit and community organizations to drive change.

The Darkside

November 2024 will be important as what I expect will be Trump vs Biden redux will take place. I think regardless of the outcome – America will be fundamentally broken. My question is, what then? I will be watching if progressives are forced (in their minds) to pick between the lesser of two evils: stay home on election day or come back-to-back a flawed and aged Biden to prevent a Trump victory? The conflict between Israel and Hamas has driven a wedge into Biden’s coalition and just assuming they will return to the fold to stop Trump is asking alot. In the minds of many young people, so many systems are so broken, so many injustices that revolutionary change is needed and a vote for Biden is just a vote for continued oppression.

I hear and feel this point of view, it isn’t lost on my that systems are rigged in many ways, and as a white male, I benefit implicitly. That being said, revolutionary change without a guillotine in the town square is hard to do. Demanding the perfect, over the better angels of the general good, is a pathway to totalitarianism regardless of the side you are on.

To bring it back to home I am left with a bunch of questions for myself and others – should Trump win or if 2024 be messy for the US. Will my people still want to hangout in hip-Detroit in a Trump second term – I probably won’t? Will the Women’s March 2.0 arrive on Trump’s Day 1 – the one day he wants to be dictator? To our economic developers, is being near to a volatile and unstable United States, the US the same advantage as it was 10 or 20 years ago, could NAFTA 3.0 might be incoming? Will those who have passionately protested here in Windsor, channel that energy into local change in 2026 despite imperfect vessels running for council or are they only going to support those of ideological purity?

Critical of Downtown  

Do I hate downtown? No…. well maybe. I hate how the conversation around downtown is framed and I hate the overly simplistic analysis that is applied to Windsor’s downtown. The fundamental framing of downtown or “the core” isn’t even commonly agreed to, in my opinion as there are dramatically different needs and challenges depending on the street and neighbourhood we are talking about.

Downtown is struggling, a number of pubs/restaurants have closed and I suspect that other shoes may drop after the holiday season. Even the Winter Holiday Bites, participating restaurants seems to have shrank as I recall far more restaurants participating in the past. As part of a consulting project this year, a team knocked on a hundredish doors in the downtown area, we asked about neighbourhood issues – the feelings were stark. Concerns about safety, cleanliness, a feeling of a downward spiral – all beyond the organization and it’s impacts were common. It seems that first 60 days of 2024 will bring some announcements about downtown and it’s pathway forward (probably tied to budget).

We get hung up on the core urbanist dialogue when fundamentally, data points to a downtown that is structurally misaligned for revitalization in my opinion. This may be a topic for a longer set of posts (a report) in the 2024 but in my opinion, simply shouting downtown is important is no longer good enough and is reaching the tipping point of the mega-hospital where most Windsorites tune it out and don’t care enough to move the issue. An election was fought on the downtown urbanist narrative, it lost. I am not saying give up but a conversation about a collaborative pathway forward is needed about downtown.

Simply because certain elements are important in some report from some other city doesn’t mean it applies here. The political-economy of Windsor is unique to Canada in many ways, past decisions can’t be easily unwound and fundamentally our region is suburban and aligns well to this John Ibbitson column in the Globe and Mail (not apart of the Windsor series but it could be). So I will be watching and likely commenting on Downtown in 2024 and we will see where it goes.

Would the next Candidate please stand up?

October 26, 2026 seems so far away, but it really isn’t.

This is how long it is until the next municipal election, and I am looking around and wondering if serious progressive candidate(s) are going to step up. The Holt Campaign was in hindsight a long shot to win, there were moments of life that brought energy to an election but if the most progressive candidate in a decade can only bring a ~38% you are a long way from change. The keyboard warriors of Windsor should consider this.

Full disclosure I canvased, scrutineered, and donated to the campaign.

Now I was not in the inner circles of the campaign, I did not participate beyond the role I outlined above but hindsight in 20/20 as they say. Looking back, the campaign seems more like a dog chasing a fire engine than a viable mayoral campaign. Deciding the year of an election to run because no one else would do it, is the epitome of small town politics, and not serious and coordinated candidacy for mayor of one of the largest cities in Canada.

The campaign did do many good things, it brought people together and made connection, started conversations about the future some of which are continuing. But simply waiting until 2026 for someone to announce themselves on the scene is fool hardly and more likely to lead to a repeated outcome than a shift in the community. With current Mayor Dilkens’ all but saying Councillor Francis is running for Mayor in 2026. Who is challenging, where is the progressive candidate. By the end of 2024, the Mayor’s race in 2026 should be set (at least in the smoke and brandy filled backrooms). Two years are needed to either raise a profile of a community member or a savvy councillor using his seat and platform to elevate himself.

The risk is, that if there aren’t signs of life by the end of the year, people will shift focus to other issues and races. It is likely that we will have 3 elections in 18 months by the time the municipal elections occur in 2026. There are likely to be lots of hotly contested ward races. 2026 could have a 2018 – “6 to 4 no more” feel to it as I suspect there will be some open seats and some targeted wards but change can only really come from leadership, and that leadership has to come from the Mayor’s chair, particularly now, with Strong Mayor powers.

Looking across Canada, progressive success has been driven by pragmatic leaders. Olivia Chow traded away Ontario Place, to cut a deal with the province to unlock the City’s finances to fund housing and other major infrastructure need. Josh Morgan Mayor of London marshalled his community around housing and homeliness with the City of London leveraging $25 Million in philanthropic donation to drive forward goal. Mayor Cam Guthrie, who is locally in Guelph, been considered quite conservative – has railed against NIMBY-ism in his community online. To Leamington’s Hilda Macdonald and Council’s prescriptive process on the old high school site is going to result in affordable and attainable units in the town’s core. In many ways all that matters is the big chair!

Who is that person in 2026, I don’t know but there is about a year to find them because if ducks aren’t being put in a row by budget 2025, its going to be a tough slog going forward.

Wrap Up

A longer post, but I had a few things to say :P. As for this blog, here is what is coming in 2024. I would encourage you to subscribe (see sidebar, on mobile the bottom of the page) as I plan to be on social media less next year. I would love to hear what you watching for, feel free to comment below or where I share this on social media.

• Continuing the Housing Crisis Tracking
• Maybe some policy book reviews
• City of Windsor Budget 2024 Review
• Hopefully some other information from the “Sprawl and Tall” Team that is Windsor-Essex Focused
• You may have noticed a new item on the top bar – my podcast Council Conversations will be back for at least 2 Seasons plus maybe a special project or two in 2024. It is going to be hosted here going forward.
• A project on income inequality and Ontario – powered by purchased data set from Statistics Canada. This was teased on Mean Median and Moose 12 Datasets of Christmas
• More of me “hating” on Downtown.
• Plus, some random few thoughts.