November’s housing data is out, here is what we see. You can find last months post here if you want to compare tables. Scroll down to see my breakdown of the Housing Accelerator Fund drama.

November Housing Starts

November Completions

YTD Housing Starts

YTD Housing Completions

I don’t have many thoughts on the data this month we are behind the pace as a region and have no sign of catching up.

A Few Thoughts:

• This week saw most of Council decided at a special meeting of council on Tuesday and a 8-2 (Councillor Costante wasn’t present- I would have suspected he would have voted to support) to not change zoning rules to allow by-right four-plexs in Windsor. By not doing this the City is failing to meet the requiring of the Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF) which would have supported between $40 to $70 million of infrastructure projects in Windsor.
• If you want to go watch the Council proceeding I would suggest starting right at the beginning with the Mayor opening the session and framing the discussion.

• The map above illustrates different zoning classification. The yellow areas currently by right allow for 3 units. The HAF request was to change these yellow areas from 3 units to 4.
• All other areas Orange, Blue, Red, as well as those in the black boundaries currently can already build 4 units or more on a residential lot by right. In many cases the blue and red zone areas, even higher density is the preferred development.
  • Planning staff talked about this explicate with their support of recent developments on Banwell Road as a major corridor and Mixed use node area.
  • This was actually approved by the last Council in July 2022.
• The Housing Accelerator Fund is a pot of money that is designed to improve infrastructure to support housing: sewers, roads etc., as well as supporting consultants and staff doing studies to get that infrastructure built, and affordable housing as well. The HAF funding was for a minimum of $40 million with up to $30 million additionally based on hitting housing targets – approximately 4,000 additional units (as stated by Administration). The funds would be released in 4 tranches I assume $10 million per year plus bonuses.
  • $10 million year isn’t insignificant here is a list of projects schedule for 2024 that I suspect could align with HAF criteria

• Although all of these projects would not be funded it gives you an idea of major infrastructure projects that could be covered. Setting aside the insane of idea of just putting $10 million to a new affordable housing project.
  • $10M equates to about a 2-2.5% property tax, to now solely fund these project by leaving that money on the table is a big deal.
• The crux of the argument put forward by the Mayor and supporters as I take is that to date- only 23-ish applications have been submitted over 6 months as of right 3 dwelling proposals. He then says (with some support from Administration) there is lots of capacity in the City for existing the existing 3 units/lot level and as a result we don’t need to approve 4 units by-right City Wide as that might cause significant disruption and impacts. In the Orange areas on the map above and in transit corridors four-flexes would be allowed therefore as of right isn’t needed City-wide.
• At a number of points Administration conflated that this rule would mean a 4X increase in density across city and as result potential put constraints of various service capacities.
  • Based on the 23ish approval rate it would take 1,428 years for all of Windsor’s 80,000ish residential lots stated by the Mayor ( for additional context the actual number of units is 94,000 at the time of the 2021 Census) I am not sure if the 80,000 is the total number of residential properties.

ADU Search (a project I co-led) captures the number of residential property at that would be ADU eligible thus removing large apartment buildings etc. based on R1 zoning.

• Yet the narrative was one of significant disruption was put forward.
  • Setting aside the fact that some of these 80,000ish lots/units are already duplexes, triplexes, illegal student housing – a 4X spike in density across the city is laughable and any councillor who believe that, is a fool.
• Administration stated that density would likely occur in pockets where that sort of development made sense – near the university as an example. Where there are already a number of four-plexes without need major disruptive infrastructure improvements – that I am aware of.
  • I recognize over the long term some planning would have to occur, but from an infrastructure perspective. If a neighbourhood has 10 single family homes with 20 toilets and it transforms to 5 single family homes with 10 toilets – 5 duplexes with 10 toilets, the total number of opportunities to poop at exactly the same time and overload the system remains constant, but you added 5 more units. Adding in a four-plex you go up to 22 total toilets but now have 17 units.
  • I am sure that there is some complex hydrodynamics that comes to play here but hiding behind an obscure model doesn’t make much sense.
• We also have to mention some exclusion that already exist from my understanding. From the same official planning amendment that that more or less created the map above the HAF said was not sufficient this map also appeared.

• This map illustrates a number of “mature neighbourhoods” where despite the zoning mapping above. An additional schedule pretty much requiring additional heritage considerations on any project in the Green areas to match the character of the neighbourhood. In essence going as far as possible without a full designation to place additional requirement on development in these areas.
  • This likely removes several thousand lots from true “by-right” consideration unless I missed where this was struck down.
  • This process includes “heritage impact study”
• Third, very few developers are going to take a 3 unit lot and convert it to a 4 unit lot. Once a lot becomes a 3 units it probably never going to change unless something catastrophic happens – land and the overall building size that is approvable by right is a finite resource. Every time a tri-plex unit is built unlike to ever become a four-plex in a lifetime.
• The Mayor articulated himself that that the shift from 3 units to 4 could spur additional development as the economic may makes sense more (actually what housing advocates want) but given the starts and completion rates at the start of this post, is that surge realistic?
  • Even if a surge does happen is, where are four-plexs most likely to go, I would propose the following:
    1. Vacant lots that are randomly for sale in neighbourhoods
    2. Apart of new residential development – East Windsor/Sandwich South subdivisions as they are built.
    3. Targeted infill near institutions and other employment/commercial hubs and likely not changing the overall building footprint on the lot.
    4. Random lots in existing neighbourhood requiring the demolishing of an existing residence and likely not changing the overall building footprint on the lot.
    5. Random lots in areas with “mature neighbourhood designations” where additional heritage considerations are required and likely not changing the overall building footprint on the lot.

Conclusion

The argument that are being put forward about measured development of four-plex is just NIMBY spin. Every councillor who failed to have the courage to vote for four-flex is a NIMBY Councillor. In 6-8 weeks we are going to see the first Strong Mayor Budget in Windsor.

There is likely going to be a tax increase, probably going to see fees on transit and swimming lesson going up too. Cuts to programs and staffing and probably also on the table as efforts to keep Windsor affordable will come to a head as inflationary pressures vs residential tax burdens come to the front. I hope someone asks when they are reviewing the capital budget, which projects may have been funded or go delayed because these funds don’t flow.

I stand by to ready to be shocked, but I doubt, the Feds are going to fund Windsor as there is a very strong precedent from London that four-plexes are table stakes for HAF Funding, a comment that administration recognized.

We passed on bucket of money in a housing crisis, we aren’t a serious city!