Edit – I uploaded the same completion chart twice since instead of the Starts chart, the correct chart is now posted
Septembers Housing Start and Completion data is out. Let’s dig in…
Housing Starts
What can I say, September was not a great month for new housing starts!
One year ago a 146 units were started in Sept. 2022. The year to date data looks like this.
I think we have to acknowledge one thing that was highlighted in the last post. From my understanding, the City of Windsor needs to build 13,000 new homes over the next 10 years, but the region needs almost 30,000 units to meet demand and help restore affordability. The smaller County municipalities did not have official targets (or the strong mayor powers) foisted upon them but we have to be mindful of these two distinct numbers and how these numbers are reported in the media. There is an opportunity to play some games with numbers going forward, as Essex county for the year has now surpassed Windsor’s target, but Windsor has only started 424/1,300 needed this year.
Completions
The second piece of this story and one I didn’t illustrate last month are housing unit completions. The timing of housing market completions is a complex matter as the size and type of construction plays a role.
This past month we saw 288 units come online across our region. Funny enough the 3 Row units in the West are I walk Izzy by on a pretty regular basis. This year to-date we see:
Despite the hoopla at council about infill this week (more on that in a minute) to date, not 1 unit has been started or completed this year in Inner East zone (mostly Ward 5 and 6) . Note that council approval doesn’t not mean it is a housing start, it still needs to actually begin construction. We are likely still months away from the approved units form this week actually counting as Housing Starts. That being said with only 424 new units online in the City of Windsor this year. Given the thousands of people moving to our region, it probably isn’t enough.
If we map the Housing Completions by CMHC Zone we see the following:
A Few Thoughts
This week’s council meeting was the first that watched in a while. It was a bit of a train wreck IMO. That coupled with this story about Mayor shooting down fourplexs in the short term is interesting. Why?
The City of Windsor has a $40 Million Housing Accelerator Fund application in process, so far almost every city that has been approved for fund also approved four-flexes. When Mississauga voted against this sort of regulation here was the Minister’s response was this:
When London, Guelph, Kitchener, Vaughan, Halifax, Calgary passed legalizing measures, the Minister was one of the first to speak out in support and quite often followed his words with a big cheque. $40 Million equates to approximately a one time 10% tax levy on the residents of Windsor or it is a 1% increase held in place for about 10 years. The fact the Mayor’s current positions is putting that money in jeopardy is risk for a major property tax hikes on residents of Windsor.
- This funding would cover the bulk of the $25M that is needed to for the Upper Little River Storm Water Management Plan and Implementation that will be required to service Sandwich South.
- Or it could fund the $10M Sandwich South Road Network Improvements.
- Or the East West Arterial Drain Diversion at $7M – all of these are projects in the 2023 Capital budget could be funded.
These aren’t my first choice of where this money should go, but I am realistic. It could also help fund some of the sewer/road projects that the Mayor and Council were so upset the Feds didn’t fund in the last round of funding to allow greater density in more urban parts of the City while preventing flooding for existing residents.
What we saw this week was some members of Council trying to have their cake and eat it too. They wanted to side with residents who “aren’t against development” but want it to “conform” while supporting projects. They spent hours talking about a traffic issue, that didn’t have to do with the project at hand, it was an outstanding issue, that was conflated and confused with the issue before them. They heard the threats of a lawsuit from a homeowner about a shadow that will be cast a few days per year into their property yard. Let’s be clear homeowners have limited rights beyond their property line.
What this tells me is that Windsor isn’t serious about the housing crisis, we aren’t serious about being an actual big city in Canada and we aren’t serious about creating economic opportunity for our residents. That council meetings going forward are going to death marches of residential concerns and erroneous issues that will only constrain our housing supply. I hope I am wrong and things start to change, as this is what this council will be judged on.
If you like post you can subscribe to the blog by providing your email in the side bar and have each post sent to your inbox. Who knows how long I will be on social media for.
gingerpolitics 
Hm. I’ve noticed there was another dynamic. There’s a weird dynamic between the development committee, and city council. Typically, what happens is that the development committee vote the development down (or have an even split), then when it gets to council, it then reverses the denial and approves it. And it seems that there are two councillors that would consistently vote development down.
Abysmal building in the core. What a shame.